Predicting the Oil Spill With Supercomputers

  • Pete Beckman says even with some of the fastest computers in the world, the model of the spill could take days to finish. (Photo courtesy of Argonne National Laboratory)

Oil from the big spill in the Gulf of Mexico is starting to turn up in places people did not expect.
That’s making it tough for cleanup crews to stay one step ahead of the oil.
Shawn Allee reports some scientists hope supercomputers might help.<

Transcript

Oil from the big spill in the Gulf of Mexico is starting to turn up in places people did not expect.
That’s making it tough for cleanup crews to stay one step ahead of the oil.
Shawn Allee reports some scientists hope supercomputers might help.

Scientists want to put together a 3D picture of what the gulf oil plume looks like, and they’re using new computer code and supercomputers to do it.

The numbers are getting crunched at Argonne national laboratory outside Chicago.
Pete Beckman runs the computing center there.

He says satellites and water samples give us some information, but we could really use a more complete picture.

“If we know for example that, because of eddies and currents, that things will accumulate at a particular map location, well, that’s where you would send the booms to soak up the oil. If you can concentrate your resources in one place, you’re much more effective.”

Beckman says even with some of the fastest computers in the world, the model of the spill could take days to finish.

For The Environment Report, I’m Shawn Allee.

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Predicting Wildfires in a Warmer World

  • This wildfire ignited along Idaho Highway 55 and was started by people. Scientists say as the climate warms, fires like this one will become common place in many parts of the world. (Photo by Sadie Babits)

Climate change has already brought
warmer temperatures, rising sea
levels and melting glaciers. Now,
researchers believe global warming
will cause major shifts in wildfire
patterns around the world. As Sadie
Babits reports, scientists hope to
predict where future wildfires will
light up:

Transcript

Climate change has already brought
warmer temperatures, rising sea
levels and melting glaciers. Now,
researchers believe global warming
will cause major shifts in wildfire
patterns around the world. As Sadie
Babits reports, scientists hope to
predict where future wildfires will
light up:

Trying to predict where wildfires are likely to start decades from now, is
kind of like getting a full body scan.

(sound of medical scanner)

Except instead of a medical scanner, scientists scanned the earth using
satellite data, climate models and the history of present day wildfires to
map out global wildfire patterns.

“The impacts of climate change on wildfires are expected to be widespread
around the world.”

Katherine Hayhoe is a climate scientist at Texas Tech University. She’s part
of a group of scientists that has for the first time, tried to project where fire
hotspots will crop up around the world. She says they found that climate
change will affect wildfire patterns.

Hotter temperatures and rain and snow coming at different times in the
year or perhaps not at all, will mean forests and grasslands will dry out
quicker – becoming tinder boxes for fire.

In the next 30 years, scientists believe that the Western U.S. will continue
to see catastrophic fires like the recent blaze in Santa Barbara, which
destroyed 80 homes.

In the next 60 years, they predict wildfires will increase in the Corn Belt and
spread into the East Coast.

Hayhoe says having an idea of how wildfire patterns will shift will help
communities better prepare.

“We can never eliminate the risk of climate change entirely but by making
wise choices and planning strategically we can minimize those risks.”

Some communities are already taking steps to prevent wildfire. The city of
Bend, Oregon was one of the first in the country to launch a public
education campaign to get homeowners to fire proof their homes. The
program, called FireFree, started more than a decade ago, after a massive
wildfire burned nineteen homes and scorched thousands of acres.

“It was something that scarred our community.”

Gary Marshall is the deputy chief of Bend’s Fire Department.

“We have this history of people wanting to live outside the urban area and
live out in rural areas, where they can see the deer and be out in the trees
and live that lifestyle that most Americans who move out to the West want
to be a part of that.”

Bend lies in what’s known as wildfire alley. Every year there are dozens of
fires that crop up either from lightning strikes or from people. The flames
are fed by dried out grasses and forests so dense you can’t see through
them. Add homes to the mix and you have a recipe for disaster not just
here but throughout the West.

But Marshall says the Fire Free program is working.

(sound of a truck driving on a dirt road)

County forester Joe Stutler and Gary Marshall drive me through
neighborhoods outside Bend. We stop first at an upscale suburb called
Coldera Springs. Everyone here has volunteered to fire proof their new
homes.

But just down the road, there’s a much older suburb and a lot of trees that
have been thinned out.

Sadie: “You can’t see through the trees it’s so dense.”

Joe: “You can’t walk through.”

Gary: “And a firefighter won’t go in there. You’d write that off. So if you
don’t take care of it, the fire will.”

That’s a picture that climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe hopes to avoid.
She says having a long term view of where wildfires might pop up could
help communities to start now and follow Bend’s lead.

It took Bend years to get most of the homeowners here to take
responsibility, and give their homes a fighting change to survive a
devastating blaze.

For The Environment Report, I’m Sadie Babits.

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Westward Ho for the Ash Borer

  • Adult emerald ash borer (Photo by David Cappaert, Michigan State University, courtesy of the Michigan Department of Agriculture)

The emerald ash borer has eaten through
millions of trees in the US and is spreading
west. Erin Toner has more:

Transcript

The emerald ash borer has eaten through
millions of trees in the US and is spreading
west. Erin Toner has more:

For six long years, the tiny metallic-green emerald ash borer has been a killing machine,
starting with millions of ash trees in Michigan and Canada, and then munching its way
into 10 states.

It was recently discovered in Missouri, and now, it’s in Wisconsin.

The prognosis is not good.

Darrell Zastrow is with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.

“Our forests are not typically resilient against non-native species and that is true for
the emerald ash borer. It is generally considered to be a poster child for invasive
species.”

Officials in Wisconsin are doing what everyone else has done – restricting the movement
of firewood and telling people how to protect their trees.

Some promising treatments to fight the emerald ash borer are being tested, but so far,
nothing has worked at keeping the insect from spreading west.

For The Environment Report, I’m Erin Toner.

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Super Mosquito to Fight Malaria?

  • (Photo courtesy of the US Geological Survey)

Researchers have created a genetically
modified mosquito. Rebecca Williams reports the
scientists hope the mosquito will help save lives:

Transcript

Researchers have created a genetically
modified mosquito. Rebecca Williams reports the
scientists hope the mosquito will help save lives:

Malaria kills more than one million people every year. The disease is
spread by mosquitoes.

Marcelo Jacobs-Lorena is a researcher at Johns Hopkins Malaria
Research Institute. He’s part of a team that has bred a genetically
modified mosquito. It can’t get infected by the malaria parasite.

“If we go to a region where malaria is prevalent and we are able to
substitute the local mosquito population by the modified mosquito that
cannot carry the parasite, then the net effect will be interruption of
transmission.”

Jacobs-Lorena says they’re confident the super mosquito is safe to
release into the wild.

But he says they’ll have to convince a lot of people that it’s okay to let it
out of the lab.

For The Environment Report, I’m Rebecca Williams.

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Fish Disease Spreads to New Waters

  • Signs of VHS, from the Michigan DNR (Photo courtesy of the US Fish and Wildlife Service)

Despite efforts to stop it, there’s a new
indication a nasty fish virus is spreading. Christina
Shockley has the latest:

Transcript

Despite efforts to stop it, there’s a new
indication a nasty fish virus is spreading. Christina
Shockley has the latest:

The name even sounds scary: viral hemorrhagic septicemia. It causes fish to bleed to
death.

VHS has been in the Great Lakes for at least three years. Officials have been trying
to confine it to the Great Lakes basin, but now it’s spread into central Ohio.

Elmer Heyob is with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources.

He says the worst-case scenario is that VHS could get into a hatchery that stocks fish
for lakes and streams, and that cloud hurt the region’s economy.

“First the hatcheries, then the fishery, then the people that support the fishery, the
boating industry, it just goes on and on.”

Heyob says to stop VHS from spreading, you shouldn’t move fish from one lake to
another, and you should clean boating and fishing equipment before you move to a
different lake.

Researchers believe eventually fish build up immunity to the disease.

VHS does not pose a threat to people.

For The Environment Report, I’m Christina Shockley.

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A Silver Bullet for Zebra Mussels?

  • Zebra mussels were discovered 20 years ago, and have since spread across the country (Photo courtesy of the US Fish and Wildlife Service)

Researchers say they’ve found something
that will kill invasive zebra and quagga mussels.
The mussels got into the US in the ballast of
foreign ships. Since then they’ve spread throughout
the country. Rebecca Williams reports:

Transcript

Researchers say they’ve found something
that will kill invasive zebra and quagga mussels.
The mussels got into the US in the ballast of
foreign ships. Since then they’ve spread throughout
the country. Rebecca Williams reports:

So, let’s say you have a nasty pest, an invasive species. Then someone says, we can get rid of that
pest and it looks like there’s no environmental downside.

“It kinda sounds like snake oil. But it’s true.”

That’s Dan Molloy with the New York State Museum lab. He’s come up with a
way to kill zebra and quagga mussels.

Molloy says a strain of common bacteria is toxic to zebra and quagga
mussels. And, even if the bacteria are dead, they can still kill the
mussels.

“You know maybe horror stories of people applying biocontrol agents. And it
had effects they didn’t anticipate. We’re applying dead cells. And they’re
just as effective live or dead.”

It’s great news for power plants, because the mussels clog up intake
pipes.

But it’s not clear if the bacteria can kill mussels in open water.

For The Environment Report, I’m Rebecca Williams.

Related Links

New Weapon for Tree-Killing Bug

  • Adult emerald ash borer (Photo by David Cappaert, Michigan State University, courtesy of the Michigan Department of Agriculture)

There might be a new weapon to use against a
destructive pest. Rebecca Williams reports the emerald
ash borer has killed more than 30 million ash trees in
eight states and Ontario:

Transcript

There might be a new weapon to use against a
destructive pest. Rebecca Williams reports the emerald
ash borer has killed more than 30 million ash trees in
eight states and Ontario:

No one’s been able to stop the tiny green beetle from killing trees. But
officials are hoping a new insecticide will help.

Researchers at Michigan State University ran trials for one year with a
chemical called Tree-age. In those tests, the insecticide killed all of the
beetles. The state of Michigan has approved the insecticide for use on ash
trees. Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia are also considering it.

Jim Bowes is with the Michigan Department of Agriculture. He says the
emerald ash borer probably can’t be stopped, but the insecticide might
slow the beetle’s spread.

“Nobody here and I don’t think anybody in the federal government at this
point is talking about eradication. I think everybody is talking about how
are we going to coexist?”

Bowes says the insecticide might be able to save trees in your yard, if
the infestation is caught early enough.

For The Environment Report, I’m Rebecca Williams.

Related Links

States Struggle to Control Ash Borer

  • The emerald ash borer is killing ash trees in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Ontario... and scientists say all the ash in North America is at risk if the beetle can't be stopped. (Photo courtesy of USFS)

A tiny green beetle is killing millions of ash trees. And so far nobody’s
found a way to stop it in its tracks. The GLRC’s Rebecca Williams reports cities and states are struggling to find money to keep the beetle from spreading:

Transcript

A tiny green beetle is killing millions of ash trees. And so far nobody’s
found a way to stop it in its tracks. The GLRC’s Rebecca Williams
reports cities and states are struggling to find money to keep the beetle
from spreading:


Once emerald ash borers chew their way into your ash trees, there’s
pretty much only one thing you can do.


(Sound of chainsaw and tree cracking and falling)


Crews here have been sawing down and chipping up trees six days a
week. In some places, crews are cutting down both dead and live trees.
Dead trees are a safety hazard. Cutting live trees near infested areas can
help contain the beetles.


The emerald ash borer is native to China. Scientists think it got in on
wood packing crates more than ten years ago. The emerald ash borer eats
through the living part of the tree just underneath the bark. The beetles
cut off the tree’s water and food supply… so it starves to death. 15
million ash trees are dead or dying in Michigan. Hundreds of thousands
are dying in Ohio, Indiana and Ontario, and it could spread to other states
soon.


Some cities have been hit really hard. For example, some of the trees in
Ann Arbor, Michigan have been dead for a couple of years. Kay
Sichenader is the city’s forester. She says she’s worried about limbs
breaking off trees, or bark falling off in 80 pound chunks.


“There’s some terrifically bad ones out there. Nothing will make me
happier than when those trees are down, I gotta tell you.”


This isn’t the first time cities have lost big shade trees. Dutch elm
disease almost wiped out American elms in the 1960’s and 70’s. It’s a
little ironic: people planted ash trees to replace the elms because they
thought ash trees were invincible.


That love of ash trees means cities are losing 20 or 30 percent of their
trees, and they’re spending millions of dollars to take trees out.


Forester Kay Sichenader says her city normally takes out a thousand old
trees a year. Now, she’s got ten times as many trees to cut down.


“If I never bumped it up, and we just remained with our thousand a year,
we would never change because it would take me ten years to get the ash
out. In the meantime I’d have 10,000 more dead trees to deal with. It’s
sobering.”


Sichenader says the city’s trying to get the dead ash trees out as fast as
they can. She’s contracted five extra crews to saw down trees. She
hopes they’ll be done by the end of the year, but it might be longer.


Many homeowners are getting impatient. They’re worried about big
branches falling on their cars or homes. Or worse, falling on their kids.


Laura Lee Hayes lives in a cul-de-sac with four infested ash trees. She
points out a big branch on her neighbor’s dead tree.


“This whole piece is just laying here, ready to pull off, and there are
small children that play in this yard. That’s why I look to my city to get
over here and get these trees down. There’s a real frightening aspect to
that.”


Hayes says she tried to pay to take the trees down herself, but she found
out it would’ve cost more than a thousand dollars.


In Indiana, homeowners now have to spend their own money to get rid of
dead trees in their yards. State officials say they can’t afford to keep
cutting down live ash trees to slow the infestation. The state won’t be
giving money to help cities cut down dead trees either. That could mean
the emerald ash borer will spread unchecked.


At first, the federal government sent states several million dollars to fight
the beetle, but now the money’s just trickling in. In 2004, Michigan
Governor Jennifer Granholm asked President Bush to declare the state a
federal disaster area. That request was denied. Recently, officials in
Ohio and Michigan said they’ll have to cut back on containing new
infestations.


These trends worry scientists.


Deb McCullough is a forest entomologist at Michigan State University.
She says states barely have enough money to monitor how far the beetle’s
spreading, and she says a lot more money’s needed for ad campaigns to
tell people to stop moving firewood. The beetle spreads fastest when
campers or hunters move infested wood.


“You have to look down the road, and either you spend millions of
dollars today to try to contain emerald ash borer or we’re going to be
looking at losses in the tens of billions of dollars in the future, and it’s not
too distant of a future.”


McCullough says if more funding doesn’t come in states might need to
have timber sales to take ash out before the beetle kills it. And cities will
still be paying millions of dollars to take out dead trees. That means
people who live in those cities might see cuts in other programs or have
to pay higher taxes.


Deb McCullough says the economic impacts are serious… but the
environmental impacts could be even worse. She says it’s hard to know
how wildlife might be affected if we continue to lose millions of ash
trees.


For the GLRC, I’m Rebecca Williams.

Related Links

Another State Scales Back Ash Borer Fight

Faced with a severe cut in federal funding, the state of Ohio is scaling back its fight against the emerald ash borer. The burrowing insect has killed millions of ash trees in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. And researchers fear the bug will soon spread to other states. The GLRC’s Mike Thompson
reports:

Transcript

Faced with a severe cut in federal funding, the state of Ohio is scaling
back its fight against the emerald ash borer. The burrowing insect has
killed millions of ash trees in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, and
researchers fear the bug will soon spread to other states. The GLRC’s
Mike Thompson reports:


Since the emerald ash borer was first spotted in Ohio in 2003, the state
has cut a quarter of a million ash trees – most of them in the northwest
part of the state. The federal government has paid for the cutting, but
Ohio’s federal funding for ash tree protection has shrunk from 17 million
dollars to about 1 million dollars.


So state officials say they will reduce the cutting of ash trees to keep the
bug from spreading. The state will let the northwest Ohio infestation run
its natural course, choosing instead to cut trees in other parts of the state.


Melissa Brewer speaks for The Ohio Department of Agriculture


“If you ignore those infestations, those infestations are going to grow and
you are going to see an expedited demise of our ash trees.”


Ohio agriculture officials say they will also use federal money to monitor
the insect, enforce quarantines and educate the public.


For the GLRC, I’m Mike Thompson.

Related Links

More Trees Lost to Emerald Ash Borer

A tree-killing beetle continues to spread through the region. The beetle has left millions of ash trees in its wake. Now it’s spread into northeast Indiana and will cost one city there much of its natural beauty. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Jeff Bossert reports:

Transcript

A tree-killing beetle continues to spread through the region. The beetle has left millions of ash trees in its wake. Now
it’s spread into northeast Indiana and will cost one city there much of its
natural beauty. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Jeff Bossert
reports:


A survey of ash trees in Decatur by the state’s Department of Natural
Resources shows the emerald ash borer has been wreaking havoc there
for some time on some trees, as long as 4 or 5 years. So, the city recently
announced it would spend 1-million dollars to cut down about 15-
thousand of them.


The ash borer slowly kills trees by making tunnels under the bark and
cutting off the food supply.


City Forester Dwight Pierce says the trees are almost entirely
infested. He hopes this move will end any concerns of the ash borer
showing up elsewhere in the state.


“We don’t want to let it spread out of our city and get into adjoining
cities, and spread farther south in the state. We’re still hoping we can
control it here before it gets down to south of Indianapolis and it turns
into a whole forest again. We obviously don’t want to let it get into
that.”


Pierce says the beetle likely came from firewood brought in from
infected areas in Michigan or Ohio… and he hopes residents of Decatur
heed warnings about moving firewood across state lines.


For the GLRC, I’m Jeff Bossert.

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