Month: August 2000

Hunters and conservationists throughout the Great Lakes region areworking together to save a once common game bird. With changes infarming practices in the last couple of decades, habitat for thebobwhite quail has been disappearing, and without it the bird has beendisappearing as well. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Lester Grahamreports… there’s concern the quail might not recover if things don’tchange soon:

Transcript

Hunters and conservationists throughout the Great Lakes Region are
working together to save a once common game bird. With changes in farming
practices in the last couple of decades, habitat for the bob white quail has been disappearing, and without it the bird has been disappearing as well. The
Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Lester Graham reports, there’s concern
the quail might not recover if things don’t change soon.

(Sound of quail)

This is just the right place at the right time to hear the bobwhite quail.
It’s early morning. The dew is still on the field of freshly cut purple
clover hay. Nearby there’s a grove of trees bordering a small stream. Yet
despite near perfect conditions, it’s still a rare treat to hear this bird
here or anywhere else. That’s because its numbers are dwindling.

It’s tough to get a good count on the number of quail left, because the
population of this ground-nesting bird varies wildly from year to year.
That’s in part because the quail is highly susceptible to severe weather, so
its population can drop 50-percent in just one year. But even taking into
account that variability, conservation experts have studied decades of
records and they say it’s clear that the quail population has been cut at
least in half, and by some county by more than 80-percent.

“Uh, the sharpest decline was in the ’70’s. That was when we
really began to experience the fence row-to-fence row farming.”

That’s John Roseberry. He’s the senior scientist at the cooperative wildlife
research laboratory at Southern Illinois University – Carbondale.
Roseberry says farming practices changed in the 1970’s. To increase production,
farmers ripped out fence rows, hedgerows, and shrubs along ditches to
make room for more crop rows. At the same time many farmers stopped raising
livestock and no longer needed hayfields. That land was also planted in
row crops such as soybeans and corn. That eliminated much of the quail’s
habitat. From there John Roseberry says things got even worse.

“Not only was that decline the result of intensive farming
activities, but also the entire Midwest suffered some really severe winters
right at the end of that decade and really dropped quail numbers to their
all-time lows.

It looked as though the population decline leveled off a bit from the
mid-1980’s to the mid-90’s, but Roseberry says it appears in the past couple
of years there’s been another steep drop in the population.

Quail hunters have been alarmed by the huge losses. Some quail hunters
organized a conservation group called Quail Unlimited. Rocky Evans is one
of the groups founders. He says quail unlimited gives away seed to grow food
for the birds. It also tries to persuade farmers and landowners to take
advantage of the federal government’s conservation reserve program.
That program pays them if they take certain land out of crop production and
let it grow naturally to help wildlife. But Evans says many landowners are
not interested.

“One big problem that we’ve had and we’re going to have is a lot of
individual landowners distrust the federal government. I mean, that’s a
fact. But, the other fact is there’s more money on the table right now than
at any time in recent history that can reverse this trend.”

Evans says getting farmers and landowners to sign on is a challenge, or he prefers to call it an opportunity.

“Now, the opportunity for Quail Unlimited is to go door-to-door,
knock on doors, have public meetings, and educate them, absolutely, and to
tell them about the money that is there; there’s sign up– bonus sign up
money right now on the table and it’s there if they’ll use it.”

The conservation reserve program has helped a number of species re-
populate. But, for quail to benefit requires more than just setting aside the land. Quail Unlimited’s ag wildlife services director, David Howell, says because the landscape has changed so dramatically in the last 50 years. It’s not
enough just to let nature take its course. One reason is native grasses have
been displaced by thicker, coarser grasses such as fescue, something the
quail don’t like.

“Quail is a relatively small bird, six – eight inches high. And it
walks 99.9 percent of the time on the ground and it has to be able to move
through the ground, it has to be open enough. It can’t be sod-bound, thick,
dense. And once it begins to go that direction, which can happen in as
little as two years, then conditions just aren’t favorable for the bird.”

So, just like the days before settlers moved in, the areas need to be
burned every few years. And Quail Unlimited encourages landowners to plant
shrubs for cover and small seed crops to feed the birds. In other words manage
the land in conservation reserve as quail habitat.

And while that work is ongoing on the ground Quail Unlimited is also
working on the hill, Capitol Hill, lobbying congress to expand
conservation efforts in the upcoming 2002 farm bill. For the Great Lakes Radio Consortium, I’m Lester Graham.

Related Links

• Quail Unlimited

A nationwide tour designed to get the attention of the public usuallyinvolves a big star and a well-structured media campaign. But a groupof environmentalists are currently touring the Great Lakes region withnothing more than a simple wooden canoe paddle to raise awareness of thevalue of America’s rivers and streams. The organizers of the ”Pass ThePaddle” campaign hope to spread their message without having a politicalagenda. But not having such an agenda is actually politicizing thetour. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Jonathan Ahl explains:

For more info on the Pass the Paddle Campaign, see www.rivers2000.org

Transcript

A nationwide tour designed to get the attention of the public usually
involves a big star and a well structured media campaign. But a group of
environmentalists are currently touring the Great Lakes region with nothing
more than a simple wooden canoe paddle to raise awareness of the value of
America’s rivers and streams. The organizers of the “Pass The Paddle”
campaign hope to spread their message without having a political agenda.
But not having such an agenda is actually politicizing the tour. The Great
Lakes Radio Consortium’s Jonathan Ahl explains.

(Ambient sound of rowers)

On a hot and humid August afternoon, four men dressed in seventeenth
century French-Canadian explorer outfits paddle a canoe towards the banks of
the Illinois River. The precise strokes of their paddles cut through the
brown water in unison, making them appear to glide across the sun soaked
surface of the calm river. While their attention may be on the paddles
that are in the water, the crowd of about one hundred people on the
riverfront are waiting for their cargo — a canoe paddle that has already
traveled through thirty five states. This nationwide tour is being
organized by Rivers 2000, a coalition of environmental groups around the
county that want to make 2000 the year of the river. Marc Miller is the
Illinois Coordinator for the project. He says he wants people to take some
time to think about the rivers in their areas

“What this does is help citizens connect with their
rivers, recognize their recreational opportunities in their local area. And
also connect with organizations that are working on these issues.”

Miller says Rivers 2000 tries to attract attention to the project by adding
elements of local history to each of the stops. And in Peoria, Illinois,
that means the influence of the French Canadian explorers. Bill Dwyer of
Chillicothe, Illinois is one of the members of the North American Voyageur
Council — a reenactment group with an interest in canoeing and
conservation. The group’s replica outfits and canoe are virtually
identical to what the characters they portray would have used hundreds of
years ago. Dwyer says realism is crucial to re-enactors, and they try to
duplicate everything as authentically as possible. But Dwyer says there
is one element of reenactment his group can’t replicate. He says the
explorers he emulates would dip their oars in the water and hold them in the
air to take a drink. Dwyer says pollution and sediment keeps them from
doing that.

“You could drink out of the river 300 years ago, that
was their water supply. Can’t do it now. You have to go municipal — you
can’t do that now. About the only thing you can do is to get splashed a
little bit to cool off. That helps.”

Dwyer says he hopes his canoeing will inspire others to think about area
rivers and streams. He says he’s confident people will make the right
choice about getting involved with river clean up and conservation projects
once they start thinking about the rivers. Dwyer says he likes that
non-confrontational approach. But not all environmentalists agree that a
non-political approach is the best way to save the country’s waterways.

“They have a different viewpoint, and
certainly we respect that.”

Joyce Blumenshine is an activist with the Heart of Illinois Sierra Club. The
group recently addressed their concerns about the Illinois River in the
exact same spot, but in a more confrontational way. They openly criticize
large agribusiness companies and the government for their role in harming
the areas waterways. Blumenshine says while she sees the value in the
Rivers 2000 effort, sometimes a more aggressive approach is necessary.

“The issues have become more strident and
deciding to be on a more congenial tone has not worked in the past, and were
at the point where time is of the essence.”

But Marc Miller of Rivers 2000 says his group will stick with a more
subdued approach toward activism. He says Rivers 2000 will not push a
political agenda or take a stand on specific issues.

“We are here to celebrate our rivers today. And
that’s our primary focus. From this will follow, hopefully people will get
involved in their local efforts. From there they can make the political
changes that they may feel is necessary to protect the rivers and streams.”

The Pass the Paddle campaign has already made stops in Indiana, Michigan,
and Ohio. This week the group will sponsor stops in Pennsylvania and New
York. After the paddle has visited all fifty states, the paddle will go on
display at the Smithsonian Museum in Washington D.C. For the Great Lakes
Radio Consortium, I’m Jonathan Ahl in Peoria, Illinois.

Today, peregrine falcons nest on skyscrapers and smokestacks in citiesall around the Great Lakes. It’s the result of a successful effort tobring the birds back from the brink of extinction, after they werenearly wiped out by the insecticide DDT. Peregrines still have notreturned to all their old wild habitat, but that’s starting to change.This summer for the first time in 40 years, peregrine falcons arenesting and raising young in one of their traditional strongholds– thecliffs along the upper Mississippi River in Minnesota, Wisconsin, andnorthern Iowa. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Mary Losure reports:

Transcript

Today, peregrine falcons nest on skyscrapers and smokestacks in cities all
around the Great Lakes. It’s the result of a successful effort to bring the
birds back from the brink of extinction, after they were nearly wiped out by
the insecticide DDT.

Peregrines still have not returned to all their old wild habitat, but
that’s starting to change.

This summer for the first time in 40 years, peregrine falcons are nesting
and raising young in one of their traditional strongholds— the cliffs
along the upper Mississippi River in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Iowa.
The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Mary Losure reports.

(Sound of traffic whizzing by)

The traffic is heavy on highway 61 along the
Mississippi River south of Winona, but retired
University of Minnesota biologist Bud Tordoff ignores it.

He strides along the shoulder carrying a tripod and high powered spotting scope.

He sets them up and aims at the sheer rock cliffs about a quarter mile in the distance.

They rise like fortresses from the wooded bluffs along the river.

“Well, let me just see what’s up there first.”

Within seconds, he has a mother peregrine in his sights.

“There’s the falcon.”

She’s perched on a dead tree, so far away she’s invisible to the naked eye, but Tordoff knows where to find her.

He’s spent his life studying peregrine falcons.

For almost 30 years Tordoff has been one of the leaders of the effort to bring them back to the Midwest.

In the mid 1970’s, he and his colleagues tried releasing captive bred birds from Mississippi cliffs.

But those efforts met with disaster.

Tordoff believes great horned owls killed the baby falcons.

“The early nestlings, they never got beyond about three weeks; as
soon as they started getting conspicuous, they vanished. At both places we
climbed to band them, you put band on them about three weeks of age, only to find at one place the chicks had disappeared overnight, and the other, the remains of one dead chick and two others that disappeared the next couple of nights.”

Peregrines were so scarce that Tordoff and his coworkers were afraid to risk any more birds on the cliffs.

So instead, they began releasing them from skyscrapers in Minneapolis and Saint Paul and from power plant smokestacks along the Mississippi.

There, peregrines built up their numbers.

Now, young birds looking for a place to nest are starting to do what earlier generations couldn’t when there were so few peregrines.

On their own, they’re taking back the old, wild strongholds on the cliffs.

“I’ll show you the nest ledge. If there’s a still an active
next, it’s back down in there behind that ledge you’re looking at. See the
dropping of whitewash from the birds that have been perched there? Little white
marks? When the female went back into it last time I was here, she went clean out of sight. So if there are chicks they’re probably in there somewhere.”

Tordoff trains his spotting scope on the ledge and waits patiently, he knows the birds have nested, but not whether any chicks have survived.

“There’s the chick! It looks like it’s about 33, 34 days old. Take
a look. On the left hand side of the ledge.”

It’s an unglamorous heap of whitish down and dark feathers, hunkered down
uncertainly, but it marks a milestone in peregrine conservation.

It’s taken nearly 30 years and 14 million dollars to bring the peregrine back.

Critics questioned spending so much time and money on one species, when so many others were in trouble. But Tordoff never wavered.

“If you want a better world, you’ve got to start somewhere. What
are you going to do if you don’t start something you can handle. Everybody has their own special interest, and you work on the things that interest you, I think that’s just human nature. (why did they interest you so much?) I just like birds, I’ve always liked birds. I’ve been an ornithologist my whole adult
life, and peregrines are just about one of the most spectacular of birds.
When they were gone they were sorely missed, and getting them back just seems
worth doing.”

This summer, peregrine falcons have nested successfully on 3 cliff faces on the
Mississippi, and Tordoff says in time, they should be able to take back all their old nesting places on the river.

Peregrines are also returning to cliff faces along the north Shore of Lake Superior.

In the eastern United States, the birds are starting to take back the cliffs along the Hudson and other lowland rivers where they used to nest.

“Here she goes, she’s flying, coming across the face. Maybe we’ll see the male. Nice updraft, look at her, she just goes up like an elevator.”

For the Great Lakes Radio Consortium, I’m Mary Losure.

In the 1950’s it was discovered that feeding livestock low levels ofantibiotics helped to fatten them before being slaughtered. Thepractice is still widely used today. But the increase in resistantbacteria found in humans is leading many experts to question the safetyof using antibiotics on the farm. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’sMark Brush has more:

Transcript

In the 1950’s it was discovered that feeding livestock low
levels of antibiotics helped to fatten them before being slaughtered.
The practice is still widely used today. But the increase in resistant
bacteria found in humans is leading many experts to question the
safety of using antibiotics on the farm. The Great Lakes Radio
Consortium’s Mark Brush has more.

The Food and Drug Administration tried to
restrict the use of antibiotics as growth
promotants more than two decades ago.

Drug producers and farm groups fought the
FDA’s efforts saying that the evidence linking
antibiotic use on the farm to human illness
was lacking.

Dr. Stuart Levy is a professor of microbiology
at Tufts University. he says proving that
human illness is linked to antibiotic use in
farm animals is difficult.

“When you use the same antibiotics for people and for animals it’s
very hard to know exactly where that resistant bacteria came
from… all you can do is postulate that if there are all these
resistant strains that are being propagated on the farm. Then
couldn’t it possibly be a contributor the problem in people. And
many of us have said yes.

A federal interagency task force is developing
an action plan to combat the resistance
problem.

Officials hope to have the final draft
completed within a year.

For the Great Lakes Radio Consortium, I’m Mark
Brush.

In the 1940’s antibiotics were hailed as ”miracle drugs.” Illnessesthat were once incurable fell easily to the new medicine’s power. Butnow, many believe the overuse of these drugs has led to a decline intheir ability to combat disease. The more the drugs are used – the morebacteria can change and resist treatment. The Great Lakes RadioConsortium’s Mark Brush reports on what many believe is one of the bigabuses of antibiotics… using them to bring food to our table:

Transcript

In the 1940’s antibiotics were hailed as “miracle drugs.” Illnesses that were once incurable fell easily to the new medicine’s power. But now, many believe the overuse of these drugs has led to a decline in their ability to combat disease. The more the drugs are used – the more bacteria can change and resist treatment. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Mark Brush reports on what many believe is one of the big abuses of antibiotics, using them to bring food to our table.

Doctors are worried. They’re staying up late and peering into their microscopes. They’re trying to figure out why bacteria that fight antibiotic treatments are on the rise.

Doctors sometimes overuse antibiotics and this is one of the main reasons that there’s an increase in resistant bacteria found in humans, but many experts believe that antibiotic use on farm animals also plays a big role.

By the mid 1950’s approximately 2 million pounds of antibiotics were produced in the u-s each year. Today 50 million pounds are produced, and almost 20 million pounds of that are given to farm animals. Some antibiotics are used to treat sick animals, but they’re also mixed with feed to fatten livestock before they’re slaughtered.

Mike Balander is an associate professor in animal science at Michigan State University. He says mixing antibiotics with animal feed is a
Common practice among chicken farmers.

“If we feed very low levels of antibiotics to the birds then we find that we get a 4 to 5% better growth rate of the birds with no increase in feed consumption… the cost effectiveness is there and that’s why it’s used. If it was not cost effective, we would not be using it.”

The practice of feeding antibiotics to animals began in the mid 50’s after people spotted trophy sized fish downstream from a penicillin factory.

Researchers traced these super-fish directly to antibiotics being dumped into the stream.

Before the use of antibiotics, raising large flocks and herds required a large amount of Space. Farmers kept the animals apart in order to prevent an outbreak of disease.

By using antibiotics, farmers were able to raise many more animals – with a better growth rate – in the same amount of space.

Mike Cook is a professor of animal science at the University of Wisconsin:

“We could go back to the old systems in which animals are less consolidated, give them more floor space, and we could probably improve growth and not even need antibiotics.”

But, cook adds, to go back to the old ways – Farmers would have to double the amount of Chicken coops and hog pens in order to produce the amount of meat consumed today. For the poultry industry alone, that would be a lot of
Extra chicken coops… 7 and a half billion chickens are grown in the U.S. each year.

Meanwhile, resistant strains of organisms that cause human disease, such as salmonella, campylobacter, and E. Coli are being found in Europe and the United States.

The food and drug administration first proposed restricting the use of antibiotics as growth promotants more than two decades ago. The drug and farm lobbies cried foul – saying that the evidence linking antibiotic use on the farm to human illness was lacking.

At the time, they were right… and proving that antibiotic use in animals leads to human illness continues to be difficult today.

Dr. Stuart levy is a professor of microbiology at Tufts University:

“When you use the same antibiotics for people and for animals it’s very hard to know exactly where that resistant bacteria came from… all you can do is postulate that if there are all these resistant strains that are being propagated on the farm then couldn’t it possibly be a contributor the problem in people and many of us have said yes!”

But drug producers say a decision on whether or not to remove antibiotics as growth promotants needs to be based on definitive scientific evidence:

“You can’t take these actions – the law doesn’t allow you to take these actions – science doesn’t allow you to take these actions based on presumption.”

Dr. Richard Carnevale is vice president for scientific affairs for the Animal Health Institute. The institute represents agricultural and veterinary drug producers.

“For people to say we don’t need these antibiotics, well, that’s their opinion. It’s easy for them to say they’re not needed, but its been in our system for 40 years, they have been proven safe and effective through all the FDA testing, and right now there hasn’t been enough of a link to human illness for FDA to take action on it.”

But evidence linking antibiotic use on the farm to human illness is mounting.

Last year, a study in Minnesota found that the use of fluoroquinolones in the poultry industry led to resistant bacteria found in humans.

And another recent study, reported in the New England Journal of Medicine, linked a fatality caused by a resistant strain of salmonella to a swine operation in Europe.

The European Union felt the evidence was strong enough to ban the use of four
Antibiotics used for growth promotion, and Sweden has outlawed the practice altogether.

Here in the U.S., the increase in resistant bacteria recently led to the creation of a federal interagency task force. The task force is developing an action plan to help combat the resistance problem.

Officials hope to have a final draft completed within a year.

For the Great Lakes Radio Consortium, I’m Mark Brush.

Researchers are developing a way to make a sweetener from a by-productof ethanol production. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Jonathan Ahlreports the discovery could benefit the corn-based fuel that scientistssay is better for the environment and creates opportunities for GreatLakes farmers:

Transcript

Researchers are developing a way to make a sweetener from a by product
of Ethanol production. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Jonathan Ahl
reports the discovery could benefit the corn based fuel that scientists say
is better for the environment and creates opportunities for Great Lakes
farmers.

USDA Researchers in Peoria, Illinois are developing a way to make xylitol
from the fibrous by product. The sweetener sells for about three dollars a
pound, compared to the five cents a pound ethanol producers currently receive for the cast off material. Illinois State University Agriculture
Economics professor Kerry Tudor says discoveries like this one could mean
the difference in the long term viability of Ethanol.

“The fact that you are taking a particular by product that has
been used in a particular market at a relatively low revenue level and being
able to convert it into something else that is going to
generate an additional amount of revenue. So yes, I think it’s key to
the future success of ethanol in the marketplace.”

The lab is now working with Ethanol companies to convince them to add the
staff and equipment to take on making the new product. For the Great
Lakes Radio Consortium, I’m Jonathan Ahl in Peoria, Illinois.

With the high price of gasoline this summer in the Great Lakes region,ethanol has been receiving a great deal of attention. The corn-basedfuel has long been touted as a renewable alternative to fossil fuels anda boon to Midwest farmers. While ethanol use has steadily increased, itstill relies on a heavy government subsidy to remain competitive. Butthere are some scientific developments in the works that could helpethanol become a more economically viable product. The Great LakesRadio Consortium’s Jonathan Ahl reports:

Transcript

With the high price of gasoline this summer in the Great Lakes
region, Ethanol has been receiving a great deal of attention. The corn
based fuel has long been touted as a renewable alternative to fossil fuels
and a boon to Midwest farmers. While Ethanol use has steadily increased, it
still relies on a heavy government subsidy to remain competitive. But
there are some scientific developments in the works that could help Ethanol
become a more economically viable product. The Great Lakes Radio
Consortium’s Jonathan Ahl reports.

(Ambient sound of ethanol plant)

Several massive iron cylinders are spinning around in a barn sized building
at ethanol producer Williams Bio-Energy in Pekin, Illinois. The machines
are drying a fluffy substance that is one of the by products of making
Ethanol. The plant produces tons of this fibrous, light weight material
each year. Williams Business Development Officer Jack Huggins says after
the material is dried out, it’s sent overseas.

”And in Europe they blend it into their animal feed
rations. So we get back somewhere between fifty to sixty dollars a ton
right now.”

That barely pays for the shipping. But that’s a part of the economics of
producing Ethanol right now. Producers say it’s hard to make a profit on
Ethanol, and the stuff that is left over after making the fuel is not
bringing in extra income. But that could change soon:

(Ambient sound in the lab)

Researchers at the USDA lab in Peoria, Illinois are using a common coffee
grinder to mince the fibrous by product into a fine fluff. This is the
first step in extracting a sweetener called xylitol from the fiber. The
material contains two sugars — glucose and xylose. Dr. Tim Leathers says
all it takes to change xylose into xylitol is adding a special kind of
yeast. The problem is that the yeast would rather consume the glucose,
leaving it too full to react with the xylose.

“To address this problem, we have developed a two stage
fermentation in which an initial set of yeast strains is used to consume the
glucose. Then those cells are removed and a second team of yeast is
introduced that now more efficiently converts the xylose to produce
xylitol.”

Xylitol tastes like sugar… it’s safe for diabetics and it doesn’t cause
tooth decay. It also sells for about one hundred times more than the
Ethanol by product it comes from. That’s gotten the attention of Ethanol
producers. Bob Scott is a professor of Economics at Bradley University.
He says the biggest challenge facing Ethanol is making it competitive in the
open market. Scott says producing other profitable products from the
Ethanol process could make up for the low margin on the corn based fuel:

“If the price of corn were too high or the price of
gasoline too low, then ethanol was not economically advantageous. But when
there are these other products that could be made from the same corn while
ethanol is being made, it takes some of the weight off of ethanol — makes
it a healthier product economically.”

There may be other benefits to creating xylitol from corn. Currently the
sweetener used in gums, candy, toothpaste, and mouthwash is created by
adding harsh chemicals to birch tree bark at high temperatures. Larry
Cunningham is a vice president at agribusiness giant Archer Daniels Midland.
He says his company is always looking for more natural ways to produce food
products like making xylitol out of corn.

”And I think that has got to be a much more efficient,
and at the end of the day environmentally friendly way to go about it than
taking down forests of birch trees.”

While all of the interested parties seem to be excited about this new the
USDA lab has to prove to companies that it’s cost effective to add the
staff and equipment to make the sweetener. And even if it does prove to be
profitable, ethanol producers say it could take several additional products
like xylitol to make the corn based fuel a strong economic alternative to
gasoline. For the Great Lakes Radio Consortium, I’m Jonathan Ahl in Peoria,
Illinois.

As scientists prepare for what could be another mild winter, they’retrying to determine how the Great Lakes are affected by ice cover. During the past few years there’s been less ice. The Great Lakes RadioConsortium’s Lester Graham reports… it could be the beginning of a newera on the lakes:

Transcript

As scientists prepare for what could be another mild winter, they’re trying
to determine how the great lakes are affected by ice cover. During the
past few years there’s been less ice. The Great Lakes Radio Consortium’s Lester
Graham reports… it could be the beginning of a new era on the lakes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes
Environmental Research Laboratory is trying to piece together how much
ice there is on the lakes each year. Complete data only go back a few decades.
But, based on that… it’s clear the last few years have seen a lot less ice.
Some environmental groups say that less ice on the lakes might be a sign of
global warming. Raymond Assel is one of the researchers studying the ice
cover. He says it’s too early to tell.

“It’s kind of difficult to, you know, really make any implications of global change or even climate variability outside of that small period because it’s a relatively small hunk of time to do any analysis on.”

However, less ice cover and the lower lake levels seen in the past few
years are conditions that some scientists say fit global warming scenarios.
For the Great Lakes Radio Consortium, I’m Lester graham.

Over the last few winters, there’s been less ice on the Great Lakes. The experts say records don’t go back far enough to know how unusualthat is. However, some scientists note that less ice cover on the lakescould be the region’s first notable effect of global warming. The GreatLakes Radio Consortium’s Lester Graham reports on what less ice couldmean in the future:

Transcript

Over the last few winters… there’s been less ice on the Great Lakes. The
experts say records don’t go back far enough to know how unusual that is.
However, some scientists note that less ice cover on the lakes could be
the region’s first notable effect of global warming. The Great Lakes Radio
Consortium’s Lester Graham reports on what less ice could mean in the
future.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes
Environmental Research Lab is putting together a puzzle. It’s piecing
together the history of ice on the Great Lakes. When it’s finished it will
have 30 years of specific data and a rough sketch over 150 years. Shipping
companies will find an immediate use for the records to better plan the
shipping seasons.

But scientists are interested in something else. Although the ice records
are incomplete right now, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab
has noticed one thing… the last few years have seen a lot less ice. Raymond
Assel is one of the researchers involved in the project.

“If we continue to have these relatively mild ice seasons, say for the next five years or so, then that would certainly indicate that we are under a new ice cover regime in the Great Lakes region. But, it’s much the problem that we have with trying to detect global warming. I mean, you know, once you can tell positively that you have it, you’ve already been in it for a while.”

Assel is not saying global warming is causing less ice on the Great Lakes.
But… he says it fits the scenario some scientists have predicted.

In fact… an economist at the University of Chicago has studied how the
Great Lakes region might be affected by global warming. Richard Kosobud says
one obvious expectation is that there’d be less ice. That would be good news
and bad news. There would likely be a longer shipping season because the ice
wouldn’t block the channels and the harbors. But Kosobud says because
ice covers open water, it prevents evaporation… less ice means greater
evaporation. And the same weather that reduced the ice might mean less
snow melt and ultimately lower lake levels… just like we’ve seen the past few
years.

“Now if that happens, then shipping is going to be adversely affected because some of these big boats barely squeeze in now. They’ve been designed to maximize profits. And if you have a declining Great Lakes level, even say a foot or a little less on the average over the next 35, 40, 50 years, there’s some cost to be incurred there.”

Most mainstream atmospheric scientists now agree that global warming is
real. And Kosobud says researchers in other disciplines are also trying to
assess the changes that might be coming. As an economist Kosobud
calculates the economic impacts could be great. Something planners and builders
around the great lakes should keep in the back of their minds.

“I don’t think we should spend huge amounts of money now trying to protect ourselves from this, but we certainly should be looking at them. And if we make long-run investments, like building a boat dock or looking at surfacing the shores of the Great Lakes, we should have these long-run impacts in mind.”

Kosobud is most concerned about the effects on the lakes ecosystems. He
says less ice and lower levels might change fish species in the lakes… affecting
ice fishing and the rest of the multi-million dollar sport fishing industry.

At the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab the scientists have also
been wondering about the possible effects on fish and wildlife if the trend of
less ice cover continues. Raymond Assel says there are too many variables
and too little data to make any solid predictions.

“It’s certainly going to have some impact, but it’s very difficult to say exactly how it’s going to play out in the entire ecosystem of the
Great Lakes.”

Not all scientists are quite as cautious in their approach as those at the
Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab. Other scientists say there are
some assumptions you can make. Dan Lashof is a senior scientist with the
environmental group, Natural Resources Defense Council. He says it’s a
pretty safe bet the reduction in ice on the Great Lakes is part of a global
warming trend.

“So along with reduced ice cover, the Great Lakes region can expect a range of other impacts including reduces in lake levels, which we’re also seeing in recent years, possibly decreases in the oxygen concentration in lake water that would reduce the productivity of the Great Lakes, and loss of habitat for a range of species that currently inhabit the region.”

Lashof says with most scientists agreeing on global warming, it’s not too
early to start planning now.

“Well, I think it is sensible to anticipate that the climate will continue to change. Of course at the same time we should be doing everything we can to reduce the pollution that causes global warming.”

In the meantime, the scientists at the Great Lakes Environmental Research
Lab are compiling Great Lakes ice maps from several sources and comparing them from year to year. They hope to soon be able to tell whether the
current pattern is just a temporary weather pattern change… or part of
an ongoing warm-up of the planet’s surface.

For the Great Lakes Radio Consortium, this is Lester Graham.